And so the obvious happened.

BCB #1	KNN
					buy, hold	6411.99 - 5871 - 7 * (19 + 6 + 11) - 1 =	287.99
					KNN	901.42 - (7 + 1) * (19 + 6) =	701.42
Right	19.00
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test	0.0020
Null	11.00		Z-Test	0.0003
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130607	6411.99	0	n/a	0.2084 rise, .1821 fall
30130531	6583.09	−1	171.10	1.00	901.42	agree	not surprised
20130524	6654.34	1	−71.25	1.00	730.32	I dont agree	not surprised
20130517	6723.06	0	n/a	0.00	801.57	.275 fall, .548 rise	-

No prediction seems to imply vol

The last thing I expected

		BCB #1
Right	18.00	KNN			0.93
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test		0.0033
Null	10.00		Z-Test		0.0006
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
30130531	6583.09	−1				agree
20130524	6654.34	1	−71.25	1.00	730.32	I dont agree	not surprised
20130517	6723.06	0	n/a	0.00	801.57	.275 fall, .548 rise	-
20130510	6624.98	1	98.08	1.00	801.57	cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise	yay

was for BCB#1 to be correct.
I still think the next move is down.

Tide and Time

		BCB #1
Right	18.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0013
Null	10.00		Z-Test		0.0012
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130524	6654.34	1			I dont agree
20130517	6723.06	0	n/a	0.00	801.57	.275 fall, .548 rise	-
20130510	6624.98	1	98.08	1.00	801.57	cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise	yay
20130503	6521.46	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautious agree 0.2392 fall 0.5313 rise	-

Answering the question I posed to myself.

Nothing.

All other things being equal, the index will probably end up at ~6500 at the end of the year.

Spent last weekend in Cornwall dodging waves.  The tide might have been going out, but we still got wet.  Didn't bother the dogs.
In the same way, you just cant judge the top of every wave.

The thing I need to better understand is how 'small' a question you can ask and get a useful answer.  The other thing is that knowing more does not always help

Momentum #2

		BCB #1
Right	18.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0013	(binomial chance of doing better)
Null	9.00		Z-Test		0.0012	(chance of doing better with exp of 0.0)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130517	6723.06	0				.275 fall, .548 rise
20130510	6624.98	1	98.08	1.00	801.57	cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise	yay
20130503	6521.46	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautious agree 0.2392 fall 0.5313 rise	-
20130426	6426.42	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautiously agree 0.317 for fall 0.5039 for rise	-

Comment:
Many people seem to think that this increase has no signs of petering out.
I would ask what has really changed over the last 3 weeks?

Momentum

		BCB #1
Right	17.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0022	(binomial chance of doing better)
Null	9.00		Z-Test		0.0022	(chance of doing better with exp of 0.0)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130510	6624.98	1				cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise
20130503	6521.46	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautious agree 0.2392 fall 0.5313 rise	-
20130426	6426.42	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautiously agree 0.317 for fall 0.5039 for rise	-
20130419	6286.59	1	139.83	1.00	703.49	cautiously agree	yay

Experimenting with Shiller CAPE but have problems getting reasonable historic data.
It is a mean reversion indicator (which I like), but it does seem to be lagging rather than leading.
Being told that the ratio was good 12 months ago doesn't seem to help.
It may be better to look at the general trend direction of this type of data.

The other reason that I am not sure this is the top is that in real terms, this is not a top.
What I do see is that Equities are cheap compared to Gilts - but that is because Gilts are expensive.

Sideways

		BCB #1
Right	17.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0022	(binomial chance of doing better)
Null	8.00		Z-Test		0.0022	(chance of doing better with exp of 0.0)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130502	6521.46	0	cautious agree 0.2392 fall 0.5313 rise
20130426	6426.42	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautiously agree 0.317 for fall 0.5039 for rise	-
20130419	6286.59	1	139.83	1.00	703.49	cautiously agree	yay
20130412	6384.39	0	n/a	0.00	563.66	agree	-

Sideways

		BCB #1
Right	17.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0022	(binomial chance of doing better)
Null	7.00		Z-Test		0.0021	(chance of doing better with exp. of 0.0)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130426	6426.42	0				0.317 for fall 0.5039 for rise
20130419	6286.59	1	139.83	1.00	703.49	cautiously agree	yay
20130412	6384.39	0	n/a	0.00	563.66	agree	-
20130405	6249.78	1	134.61	1.00	563.66	agree expect a bounce	hurrah