Tide and Time

		BCB #1
Right	18.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0013
Null	10.00		Z-Test		0.0012
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130524	6654.34	1			I dont agree
20130517	6723.06	0	n/a	0.00	801.57	.275 fall, .548 rise	-
20130510	6624.98	1	98.08	1.00	801.57	cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise	yay
20130503	6521.46	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautious agree 0.2392 fall 0.5313 rise	-

Answering the question I posed to myself.

Nothing.

All other things being equal, the index will probably end up at ~6500 at the end of the year.

Spent last weekend in Cornwall dodging waves.  The tide might have been going out, but we still got wet.  Didn't bother the dogs.
In the same way, you just cant judge the top of every wave.

The thing I need to better understand is how 'small' a question you can ask and get a useful answer.  The other thing is that knowing more does not always help