Trending in tight band

Right	8	BCB #1
Wrong	4		Bin Test	0.073	(chance of doing better)
Null	2		Z-Test	0.8152	(chance forecast not 50%)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20130111	6121.58	1			unsure
20130104	6089.84	0	n/a		I think +
20121228	5925.37	-1	-164.47	-32.12	agree
20121221	5939.99	-1	14.62	132.35	disagree

How wrong I was

Right	8	BCB #1
Wrong	4		Bin Test	0.073	(chance of doing better)
Null	1		Z-Test	0.8152	(chance forecast not 50%)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20130104	6089.84	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121228	5925.37	-1	-164.47	-32.12	agree
20121221	5939.99	-1	14.62	132.35	disagree
20121214	5921.76	1	18.23	117.73	agree

Not a good start to the year.