Momentum

		BCB #1
Right	17.00	KNN
Wrong	5.00		Bin Test		0.0022	(binomial chance of doing better)
Null	9.00		Z-Test		0.0022	(chance of doing better with exp of 0.0)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130510	6624.98	1				cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise
20130503	6521.46	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautious agree 0.2392 fall 0.5313 rise	-
20130426	6426.42	0	n/a	0.00	703.49	cautiously agree 0.317 for fall 0.5039 for rise	-
20130419	6286.59	1	139.83	1.00	703.49	cautiously agree	yay

Experimenting with Shiller CAPE but have problems getting reasonable historic data.
It is a mean reversion indicator (which I like), but it does seem to be lagging rather than leading.
Being told that the ratio was good 12 months ago doesn't seem to help.
It may be better to look at the general trend direction of this type of data.

The other reason that I am not sure this is the top is that in real terms, this is not a top.
What I do see is that Equities are cheap compared to Gilts - but that is because Gilts are expensive.