Monday 21 April 2014

Reversion to mean (me)

Happily theoretical, but nevertheless.


BCB #1 KNN









Right 5.00 17.00 38.00




Wrong 8.00 16.00 24.00




Null 0.00 7.00 18.00




gain/loss Rolling



date close f'cast In Week 13 week 26 week All Time note outturn
20140418 6625.3 1





20140411 6561.7 -1 -63.60 -340.20 -265.50 861.17

20140404 6695.6 1 -133.90 -442.20 -66.50 924.77

20140328 6615.6 1 80.00 -218.90 67.40 1058.67

20140321 6557.2 1 58.40 -289.70 -71.36 978.67

20140314 6527.9 -1 -29.30 -327.90 -213.50 920.27

20140307 6712.7 1 -184.80 -442.90 -171.60 949.57

20140228 6809.7 1 -97.00 -91.50 -23.30 1134.37

20140220 6813 -1 3.30 117.50 208.07 1231.37

20140214 6663.6 1 149.40 15.60 204.77 1228.07

20140207 6571.7 1 91.90 -133.80 55.37 1078.67

20140131 6510.4 -1 -61.30 -225.70 -36.53 986.77

20140124 6663.7 1 -153.30 -164.40 -39.73 1048.07

20140117 6829.3 1 -165.60 -37.40 206.67 1201.37

20140110 6739.9 1 89.40 141.60 296.37 1366.97


Rebalanced the program in Jan and that 'improvement' hasnt been so great.

Sunday 22 December 2013

Merry Christmas





Right 23.00 10.00 30.00
Wrong 12.00 9.00 15.00
Null 17.00 7.00 18.00
gain/loss Rolling
date close f'cast In Week 52 week 26 week All Time note outturn
20131220 6606.60 −1 strong indication
20131213 6440.00 1 166.60 1260.12 298.92 1392.47 believeable, but weak indication yay, but my limit was at 6550
20131206 6552.00 −1 112.00 1108.14 324.45 1225.87 post event publishing...
20131129 6650.60 1 −98.60 1014.37 212.45 1113.87 believeable, but weak indication
20131122 6674.30 0 n/a 1120.33 482.15 1212.47 n/a


Suspicious of this.  Santa rally generally persists to mid-jan.

26 week stats indicate market is in the process of changing from up-trend to something else, but too early to call.

Monday 16 December 2013

Chromebooks

Branching out from (last week incorrect) predictions.
I got a Chromebook.  this was partly for personal amusement and partly to see what it is.

Hardware:

HP Chromebook 14 - why:
  • because it has a full size keyboard.  
Tattoos and piercings were the criteria that I used to generation gap myself from the youth, now it is a wish for full size keyboards.
  • cheap
These things are relative, it was £251 and came with a 2 year 'datapass' (250mb H+ via 3 per month) and 100gb google cloud storage.
In context, the 3g Nexus 7 2013 is £299, and you need to provide your own sim.
Having recently visited my local food bank (to donate), I am going to be rather more careful about saying whether something is cheap to an unknown audience in future.
  • Reasonable battery life
Seems to last me 2+ days - I do not play much music / any videos
  • Things that surprised me
It is as fast as my (2 year old) core i7 laptop.  No, really.  The thing is that all it is doing is rendering web pages, possibly quite complicated ones, like a big Google spreadsheet with many custom functions.  The Chromebook's apparent performance is about the same.  Of course a 'real' laptop does lots of other things too.
  • Things I changed my mind about
The colour - I got a turquoise one.  At first it looked really jarring, a week later I have stopped thinking about it.


  • Things I wish were better
Might bother you
The weight - is 4lbs, yes 11in Chromebooks are about 2lb, but this is a larger form factor, and macbook air 13's are 3lb,  but they cost about 4 times as much.
The screen - no it isn't an IPS screen.  The thing is that neither is it a tablet, you will be sitting down when using it and you will set the screen at the correct angle - it seems to have about a 90 degree usable range.
The screen - no it isn't full hd.  If you are going to watch lots of films, this may be a limitation, Otherwise probably not.
Bothers me
I can hear the cpu fan in a silent room, as the processor is an Intel, don't suppose I have much choice.
The speakers are average for laptop speakers, but this thing is targeted as a content consumption device more than a work device - you get 2 months of Google music - and OH asked me to put headphones on as the noise is too tinny.
  • Things I thought I might do, but probably wont now
Put Ubuntu on it.

That leads me neatly on to

Software:

It takes me a while to understand Chrome OS (or however they want to spell it), and it is still an ongoing process.  I grew up with punched tape at school, and correcting it included the use of scissors and sellotape.

I have always been conscious of the plumbing involved in writing / maintaining / running operating systems and the programs that work on them.

I have now spent 2 evenings trying to get my home server to pass port 4040 through 2 routers and the internet, translated to port 443 - and failed.

It is perhaps better to state it in terms of negatives.
  • Nothing but web pages
  • No viruses, virus scanners, virus scanner updates
  • No in-your-face (windows needs to reboot again as part of this update) updates
  • No (PS/Xbox type) games
  • Not much chance of losing stuff if the Chromebook breaks/gets stolen/house burns down.
No spending time trying to make something do something, because you cannot even start.

Those who remember the first generation ipods, where an ipod was nothing but a music player and itunes was nothing but a backup tool might understand.

So, I am getting into it.





15 December 13




BCB #1 KNN
Right 29.00
Wrong 15.00 Bin Test 0.0113
Null 18.00
gain/loss Rolling
date close f'cast In Week 52 week All Time note outturn
20131213 6440 1 believeable, but weak indication
20131206 6552 −1 112.00 1108.14 1225.87 post event publishing...
20131129 6650.60 1 −98.60 1014.37 1113.87 believeable, but weak indication
20131122 6674.30 0 n/a 1120.33 1212.47 n/a
20131115 6693.40 0 n/a 1120.33 1212.47 post event publishing...
20131108 6708.40 0 n/a 1152.75 1212.47 post event publishing...

Also did ok out of  short VED long RMG.

Sunday 1 December 2013

Christmas Time



BCB #1 KNN
Right 28.00
Wrong 14.00 Bin Test 0.0098
Null 18.00
gain/loss
date close f'cast In Week 52 week All Time note outturn
20131129 6650.60 1 believeable, but weak indication
20131122 6674.30 0 n/a 1120.33 1212.47 n/a
20131115 6693.40 0 n/a 1120.33 1212.47 post event publishing...
20131108 6708.40 0 n/a 1152.75 1212.47 post event publishing...







Mistletoe and wine, 
It's re-aligning indices time - which seems to apply an upward pressure.


Saturday 23 November 2013

Went missing

Went missing for a few weeks.
This bit is all theoretical as it was posted in arrears








date close f'cast gain/loss cum note outturn
20131122 6674.3 0



20131115 6693.4 0 0.00 1212.47

20131108 6708.4 0 0.00 1212.47

20131101 6734.7 1 -26.30 1212.47

20131025 6721.3 1 13.40 1238.77

20131018 6622.6 1 98.70 1225.37

20131011 6487.2 1 135.40 1126.67

20131004 6453.9 0 0.00 991.27

20130927 6512.66 1 -58.76 991.27

20130920 6596.4 1 -83.74 1050.03 cautiously optimistic
20130913 6583.8 1 12.60 1133.77 week started well I did better!
20130906 6547.3 -1 -36.50 1121.17 week started well
20130830 6412.93 1 134.37 1157.67 believeable







Sunday 22 September 2013

Many are predicting an upward movement


BCB #1 KNN







Profit buy, hold: 6583.8 - 5871 - 7 * (25 + 11 + 14) - 1 = 361.80



post expense KNN: 1133.77 - (7 + 1) * (25 + 11) = 869.67
Right 25.00




Wrong 11.00
Bin Test 0.0057

Null 14.00











date close f'cast gain/loss cum note outturn
20130920 6596.4 1

cautiously optimistic
20130913 6583.8 1 12.60 1133.77 week started well I did better!
20130906 6547.3 -1 -36.50 1121.17 week started well
20130830 6412.93 1 134.37 1157.67 believeable

... and so do I.
Model says on a scale 1-10, this rates a 3
I am less sure.

The limit was close last week.  
Close was 6596 so:- Stop loss 6510, Limit  6683
I need to look at stop-losses and limits.