Too pessimistic.

BCB #1	KNN
				P/L	buy, hold	6308.3 - 5871 - 7 * (19 + 6 + 11) - 1	= 287.99
			given exp		KNN	901.42 - (7 + 1) * (19 + 6)	= 701.42
Right	19.00
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test	0.0020
Null	11.00		Z-Test	0.0001
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130614	6308.3	−1				not sure
20130607	6411.99	0	n/a	1.00	901.42	0.2084 rise, .1821 fall
30130531	6583.09	−1	171.10	1.00	901.42	agree	not surprised
20130524	6654.34	1	−71.25	1.00	730.32	I dont agree	not surprised