Going back to early 2009, if the FT100 went up one day, the chances were (about 70%) that it would fall the next day.
I wondered if this was true in a wider sense - if the pattern of change one day had an effect the next day.
After a lot of fiddling and testing, the answer was that by the time I had worked out the answer, the market changed its behaviour.
I persisted looking at a longer timeframe (weekly) and it almost seems to work.
This series is here to keep me honest. I would rather be right than make money and so I probably won't and so if you take any action based on a post, the action you should take is to ignore what I say.
Anyway.
I intend to come up with a series of 'beautiful crystal balls' (BCBs)
The first one is based on the thought that there are patterns like candlestick patterns.
BCB #1
| date | close | forecast | gain/loss | cum | note |
| 20121115 | 5605.59 | -1 | I dont agree | ||
| 20121109 | 5769.68 | -1 | 164.09 | 273.27 | |
| 20121102 | 5868.55 | 1 | -98.87 | 109.18 | |
| 20121026 | 5806.71 | -1 | -61.84 | 208.05 | |
| 20121019 | 5896.1 | -1 | 89.39 | 269.89 | |
| 20121012 | 5793.3 | 1 | 102.8 | 180.5 | |
| 20121005 | 5871 | -1 | 77.7 | 77.7 |
4 right out of 6 = 38.4% on a binomial test
No comments:
Post a Comment