Last harvest of summer

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L	buy, hold	6630.7 - 5871 - 7 * (22 + 8 + 11) - 1 =	471.70
		given exp		KNN	1070.6 - (7 + 1) * (22 + 8) =	661.42
Right	22.00
Wrong	8.00		Bin Test	0.0026
Null	11.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130719	6630.7	1
20130712	6544.94	1	85.76	1070.60	early signs of reality <> model?	maybe not
20130705	6375.5	−1	−169.44	984.84	dont trust this	not surprised
20130628	6215.47	1	160.03	1154.28	-	-

Dont trust it

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L	buy, hold	6375.5 - 5871 - 7 * (21 + 8 + 11) - 1	= 259.99
		given exp		KNN	984.84 - (7 + 1) * (21 + 8)	= 669.42
Right	21.00
Wrong	8.00		Bin Test	0.0041
Null	11.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130712	6544.94	1			early signs of reality <> model?
20130705	6375.5	−1	−169.44	984.84	dont trust this	not surprised
20130628	6215.47	1	160.03	1154.28	-	-
20130621	6116.17	−1	−99.30	994.25	grinding inevitability	how wrong

In the same way that in ~may 09 the market stopped whipsaw and started doing something else, I suspect the same is happening now.

I just dont see a murray slump

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L		buy, hold	6215.47 - 5871 - 7 * (21 + 7 + 11) - 1	= 266.99
		given exp			KNN	1154.28 - (7 + 1) * (21 + 7)	= 677.42
Right	21.00
Wrong	7.00		Bin Test		0.0019
Null	11.00		Z-Test		0.0001
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130705	6375.5	−1				dont trust this
20130628	6215.47	1	160.03	1.00	1154.28	-	-
20130621	6116.17	−1	−99.30	1.00	994.25	grinding inevitability	how wrong
20130614	6308.3	−1	192.13	1.00	1093.55	not sure	hindsight is easy

You feel a grinding sense of invevitablility

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L		buy, hold	6116.17 - 5871 - 7 * (20 + 6 + 11) - 1	= 280.99
		given exp			KNN	1093.55 - (7 + 1) * (20 + 6)	= 693.42
Right	20.00
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test		0.0013
Null	11.00		Z-Test		0.0001
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130621	6116.17	−1				grinding inevitability
20130614	6308.3	−1	192.13	1.00	1093.55	not sure	hindsight is easy
20130607	6411.99	0	n/a	1.00	901.42	0.2084 rise, .1821 fall
30130531	6583.09	−1	171.10	1.00	901.42	agree	not surprised

The question from 19/5 is now answered.
The two questions that need to be asked is 
- why, if I knew, did I do precisely nothing?
- how low can it go?

Too pessimistic.

BCB #1	KNN
				P/L	buy, hold	6308.3 - 5871 - 7 * (19 + 6 + 11) - 1	= 287.99
			given exp		KNN	901.42 - (7 + 1) * (19 + 6)	= 701.42
Right	19.00
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test	0.0020
Null	11.00		Z-Test	0.0001
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130614	6308.3	−1				not sure
20130607	6411.99	0	n/a	1.00	901.42	0.2084 rise, .1821 fall
30130531	6583.09	−1	171.10	1.00	901.42	agree	not surprised
20130524	6654.34	1	−71.25	1.00	730.32	I dont agree	not surprised

And so the obvious happened.

BCB #1	KNN
					buy, hold	6411.99 - 5871 - 7 * (19 + 6 + 11) - 1 =	287.99
					KNN	901.42 - (7 + 1) * (19 + 6) =	701.42
Right	19.00
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test	0.0020
Null	11.00		Z-Test	0.0003
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
20130607	6411.99	0	n/a	0.2084 rise, .1821 fall
30130531	6583.09	−1	171.10	1.00	901.42	agree	not surprised
20130524	6654.34	1	−71.25	1.00	730.32	I dont agree	not surprised
20130517	6723.06	0	n/a	0.00	801.57	.275 fall, .548 rise	-

No prediction seems to imply vol

The last thing I expected

		BCB #1
Right	18.00	KNN			0.93
Wrong	6.00		Bin Test		0.0033
Null	10.00		Z-Test		0.0006
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	sign	cum	note	outturn
30130531	6583.09	−1				agree
20130524	6654.34	1	−71.25	1.00	730.32	I dont agree	not surprised
20130517	6723.06	0	n/a	0.00	801.57	.275 fall, .548 rise	-
20130510	6624.98	1	98.08	1.00	801.57	cautious disagree. 0.1515 rise	yay

was for BCB#1 to be correct.
I still think the next move is down.