| BCB #1 | KNN | ||||||
| P/L | buy, hold | 6554.8 - 5871 - 7 * (22 + 9 + 11) - 1 = | 388.80 | ||||
| given exp | KNN | 994.7 - (7 + 1) * (22 + 9) = | 653.42 | ||||
| Right | 22.00 | ||||||
| Wrong | 9.00 | Bin Test | 0.0053 | ||||
| Null | 11.00 | ||||||
| date | close | f'cast | gain/loss | cum | note | outturn | |
| 20130726 | 6554.80 | 1 | not sure, but optimistic | ||||
| 20130719 | 6630.7 | 1 | −75.90 | 994.70 | boo | ||
| 20130712 | 6544.94 | 1 | 85.76 | 1070.60 | early signs of reality <> model? | maybe not | |
| 20130705 | 6375.5 | −1 | −169.44 | 984.84 | dont trust this | not surprised | |
Sunday, 28 July 2013
Irrational Optimism
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