Went missing

Went missing for a few weeks.
This bit is all theoretical as it was posted in arrears

date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20131122	6674.3	0
20131115	6693.4	0	0.00	1212.47
20131108	6708.4	0	0.00	1212.47
20131101	6734.7	1	-26.30	1212.47
20131025	6721.3	1	13.40	1238.77
20131018	6622.6	1	98.70	1225.37
20131011	6487.2	1	135.40	1126.67
20131004	6453.9	0	0.00	991.27
20130927	6512.66	1	-58.76	991.27
20130920	6596.4	1	-83.74	1050.03	cautiously optimistic
20130913	6583.8	1	12.60	1133.77	week started well	I did better!
20130906	6547.3	-1	-36.50	1121.17	week started well
20130830	6412.93	1	134.37	1157.67	believeable

Many are predicting an upward movement

BCB #1	KNN
			Profit	buy, hold:	6583.8 - 5871 - 7 * (25 + 11 + 14) - 1 =	361.80
			post expense	KNN:	1133.77 - (7 + 1) * (25 + 11) =	869.67
Right	25.00
Wrong	11.00		Bin Test	0.0057
Null	14.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130920	6596.4	1			cautiously optimistic
20130913	6583.8	1	12.60	1133.77	week started well	I did better!
20130906	6547.3	-1	-36.50	1121.17	week started well
20130830	6412.93	1	134.37	1157.67	believeable

... and so do I.

Model says on a scale 1-10, this rates a 3

I am less sure.

The limit was close last week.  

Close was 6596 so:- Stop loss 6510, Limit  6683

I need to look at stop-losses and limits.

Possible upturn

BCB #1	KNN
			Profit	buy, hold:	6547.3 - 5871 - 7 * (24 + 11 + 14) - 1 =	332.30
			post expense	KNN:	1121.17 - (7 + 1) * (24 + 11) =	877.67
Right	24.00
Wrong	11.00		Bin Test	0.0083
Null	14.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130913	6583.8	1
20130906	6547.3	-1	-36.50	1121.17	week started well
20130830	6412.93	1	134.37	1157.67	believeable
20130823	6492.1		n/a	1023.30	hol

Weak bet on rise over next week 

Been looking into stop losses and position sizes.

Position size : on a scale 1-10, this rates a 2.

Close was 6583.8:- Stop loss 6497, Limit  6670

Movements are currently driven by news and so any mechanical technique is very vulnerable.

More Congestion?

Access limited as not at home

Weak bet on fall over next week 

Been looking into stop losses and position sizes.

Position size : on a scale 1-10, this rates a 2.

Close was 6547.3:- Stop loss 6632, Limit  6416

Movements are currently driven by news and so any mechanical technique is very vulnerable.

Back From Hol

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L	buy, hold	6492.1 - 5871 - 7 * (23 + 10 + 14) - 1 =	291.10
		given exp		KNN	1023.3 - (7 + 1) * (23 + 10) =	759.30
Right	23.00
Wrong	10.00		Bin Test	0.0068
Null	14.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130830	6412.93	1			believable
20130823	6492.1		n/a	1023.30	hol
20130816	6500		n/a	1023.30	hol
20130809	6583.4		n/a	1023.30	hol

Not doing too shabbily partly because I went on hol.

It is still summer

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L	buy, hold	6647.9 - 5871 - 7 * (23 + 9 + 11) - 1 =	474.90
		given exp		KNN	1087.8 - (7 + 1) * (23 + 9) =	645.42
Right	23.00
Wrong	9.00		Bin Test	0.0035
Null	11.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130802	6647.9	1			feels right
20130726	6554.80	1	93.10	1087.80	not sure, but optimistic	yay
20130719	6630.7	1	−75.90	994.70		boo
20130712	6544.94	1	85.76	1070.60	early signs of reality <> model?	maybe not

Irrational Optimism

BCB #1	KNN
			P/L	buy, hold	6554.8 - 5871 - 7 * (22 + 9 + 11) - 1 =	388.80
		given exp		KNN	994.7 - (7 + 1) * (22 + 9) =	653.42
Right	22.00
Wrong	9.00		Bin Test	0.0053
Null	11.00
date	close	f'cast	gain/loss	cum	note	outturn
20130726	6554.80	1			not sure, but optimistic
20130719	6630.7	1	−75.90	994.70		boo
20130712	6544.94	1	85.76	1070.60	early signs of reality <> model?	maybe not
20130705	6375.5	−1	−169.44	984.84	dont trust this	not surprised