... and on that thought i wondered if the same was true of real life (to some extent).
Going back to early 2009, if the FT100 went up one day, the chances were (about 70%) that it would fall the next day.
I wondered if this was true in a wider sense - if the pattern of change one day had an effect the next day.
After a lot of fiddling and testing, the answer was that by the time I had worked out the answer, the market changed its behaviour.
I persisted looking at a longer timeframe (weekly) and it almost seems to work.
This series is here to keep me honest. I would rather be right than make money and so I probably won't and so if you take any action based on a post, the action you should take is to ignore what I say.
Anyway.
I intend to come up with a series of 'beautiful crystal balls' (BCBs)
The first one is based on the thought that there are patterns like candlestick patterns.
BCB #1
| date |
close |
forecast |
gain/loss |
cum |
note |
| 20121115 |
5605.59 |
-1 |
|
|
I dont agree |
| 20121109 |
5769.68 |
-1 |
164.09 |
273.27 |
|
| 20121102 |
5868.55 |
1 |
-98.87 |
109.18 |
|
| 20121026 |
5806.71 |
-1 |
-61.84 |
208.05 |
|
| 20121019 |
5896.1 |
-1 |
89.39 |
269.89 |
|
| 20121012 |
5793.3 |
1 |
102.8 |
180.5 |
|
| 20121005 |
5871 |
-1 |
77.7 |
77.7 |
|
4 right out of 6 = 38.4% on a binomial test
