Happy new year

Right	8	BCB #1
Wrong	3		Bin Test	0.0327	(chance of doing better)
Null	1		Z-Test	0.8152	(chance forecast not 50%)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121228	5925.37	-1			agree
20121221	5939.99	-1	14.62	132.35	disagree
20121214	5921.76	1	18.23	117.73	agree
20121207	5914.4	1	7.36	99.5	agree

You can see the urge for  a big change building up...

BCB thinks christmas is over already

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121221	5939.99	-1			disagree
20121214	5921.76	1	18.23	117.73	agree
20121207	5914.4	1	7.36	99.5	agree
20121129	5786.72	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	disagree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	7
		Wrong	3
		Null	1
			Bin Test	0.0547	(chance of doing better)
			Z-Test	0.7305	(chance average is not 50/50)

Not so sure I believe in Santa

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121214	5921.76	1			agree
20121207	5914.4	1	7.36	99.5	agree
20121129	5786.72	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	I don't agree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	6
		Wrong	3
		Null	1
			Bin Test	0.08984375	(chance of doing better)

Santa Rally.

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121207	5914.4	1			agree
20121129	5786.72	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	I don't agree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	5
		Wrong	3
		Null	1
			Bin Test	0.1445	(chance of doing better)

Mixed feelings

Long week and too many people left

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121129	5786.72	0			I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	I don't agree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	5
		Wrong	3
		Null	0
			Bin Test	0.1445	(chance of doing better)

Missed the boat on OCG.

Bad week

Wet, rained much of the weekend

Not so good either 

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121123	5819.14	-1			I don't agree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	4
		Wrong	3
		Null	0
			Bin Test	0.2266	(chance of doing better)

One day seems to be much like another

... and on that thought i wondered if the same was true of real life (to some extent).
Going back to early 2009, if the FT100 went up one day, the chances were (about 70%) that it would fall the next day.
I wondered if this was true in a wider sense - if the pattern of change one day had an effect the next day.
After a lot of fiddling and testing, the answer was that by the time I had worked out the answer, the market changed its behaviour.  
I persisted looking at a longer timeframe (weekly) and it almost seems to work.

This series is here to keep me honest.  I would rather be right than make money and so I probably won't and so if you take any action based on a post, the action you should take is to ignore what I say.

Anyway.

I intend to come up with a series of 'beautiful crystal balls' (BCBs) 

The first one is based on the thought that there are patterns like candlestick patterns.


BCB #1

date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121115	5605.59	-1			I dont agree
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7

4 right out of 6 = 38.4% on a binomial test

10 People who really should know better. One organisation that clearly does not.

There was a really interesting (?) NEST Pensions Release  on 10/11/12

new research by NEST shows that very few people think pensions are 'straightforward' (6 per cent), 'easy to understand' (4 per cent), 'simple' (3 per cent), 'interesting' (5 per cent) or 'engaging' (2 per cent).

Well, so are car maintenance manuals and Tax guides.  What to do...

Yes, publish a phrasebook

'The latest version of NEST’s phrasebook includes new jargon-busting terms we've tested with our likely members and their employers to help make pensions easier to understand.

Or what other people call a 'dictionary'.

Better yet take the old one and make it better.

Get some people to review it

Nick Timmins, Policy Commentator and Analyst, Financial Times: 'If you only read one book about pensions, read this!'

It cannot be said that any book on Pensions has reached the bestseller list, but they do generally tell you something about Pensions.

These people think that you can simplify a subject by providing a dictionary that re-states terms that refer to (sometimes) complex terminology that need extended explanation in their own right.

I would like to put this down as evidence of a particularly perverse collective sense of humour, but this subject is too important.

 

Having said that, this is the industry that had Pensions Simplification and ended up with a rulebook over 3 times as long.

If you want to make something more simple, the best method of doing this is to make it more simple.  Not use shorter words to describe it.

Civil Service Pension Schemes and unintended consequences

My Partner is a Doctor.  One of the things she is currently v. unhappy about (ignoring the general state of the NHS) is her pension.

She belongs to the old scheme (N/80ths NRA 60) and quite soon she will be moved across into the new scheme.  The BMA gave her some details on the proposals last week.

I did warn her at the time that they fluffed the review on '08 and that the arrangement is just not sustainable, but stopped myself short of the 'I told you so' moment, the reason being that having read the details, I cannot be sure that she is worse off.

Before :

N/80ths pension + 3N/80ths cash, NRA 60

After :

N/54ths, NRA 67.

The early retirement factor is due to be about 5% (not confirmed).

So this becomes 54 * 1.05^7 = 80ths

So, on the face of it, the you get about 25% less pension (the cash) and pay 3% more for the privilege.

Hold on though, the salary used to calculate the benefit is not Final Salary anymore, it is the salary in year, revalued by CPI + 1.5%.

If (for the sake of argument), there are 15 years between retirement and age 60

So, if the govt keeps NHS pay-rises below CPI+1.5% - just 0.5% per annum, the difference is slowly eroded.

Indeed CPI+1% would be a better pay rise that she has had for the last 3 years.