Happy new year

Right	8	BCB #1
Wrong	3		Bin Test	0.0327	(chance of doing better)
Null	1		Z-Test	0.8152	(chance forecast not 50%)
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121228	5925.37	-1			agree
20121221	5939.99	-1	14.62	132.35	disagree
20121214	5921.76	1	18.23	117.73	agree
20121207	5914.4	1	7.36	99.5	agree

You can see the urge for  a big change building up...

BCB thinks christmas is over already

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121221	5939.99	-1			disagree
20121214	5921.76	1	18.23	117.73	agree
20121207	5914.4	1	7.36	99.5	agree
20121129	5786.72	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	disagree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	7
		Wrong	3
		Null	1
			Bin Test	0.0547	(chance of doing better)
			Z-Test	0.7305	(chance average is not 50/50)

Not so sure I believe in Santa

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121214	5921.76	1			agree
20121207	5914.4	1	7.36	99.5	agree
20121129	5786.72	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	I don't agree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	6
		Wrong	3
		Null	1
			Bin Test	0.08984375	(chance of doing better)

Santa Rally.

BCB #1
date	close	forecast	gain/loss	cum	note
20121207	5914.4	1			agree
20121129	5786.72	0	n/a	n/a	I think +
20121123	5819.14	-1	32.42	92.14	I don't agree
20121115	5605.59	-1	-213.55	59.72
20121109	5769.68	-1	164.09	273.27
20121102	5868.55	1	-98.87	109.18
20121026	5806.71	-1	-61.84	208.05
20121019	5896.1	-1	89.39	269.89
20121012	5793.3	1	102.8	180.5
20121005	5871	-1	77.7	77.7
		Right	5
		Wrong	3
		Null	1
			Bin Test	0.1445	(chance of doing better)